Sweeney, John and Fealy, Rowan (2002) Future climate scenarios for Ireland using high resolution statistical downscaling techniques. In: Achievement and Challenge: Rio+10 and Ireland. The Environmental Institute, UCD, pp. 172-179. ISBN 1-902277-589
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Abstract
Polynomial regression techniques were used to derive a baseline climatology for Ireland at a scale of l km2 for
the p eriod 1961-90. Monthly climate variables were related to position and elevation on a digital elevation
model and these were found to provide good predictors for precipitation and m aximum/minimum
temperature. Baseline maps for mean monthly radiation receipt and potential evapotranspiration were a lso
derived at 1 km2 scales. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis D ata were then related to this b aseline climatology and relationships
be n veen upper air variables and surface climate established as a basis for statistical downscaling of global
climate models.
Monthly output for the spatial domain over Ireland were extrac ted from th e latest Hadley Centre Clobal
Climate Model (HadCM3). Using the upper air/surface relationships the climate differences be t\'Veen a
modelled run for the 1961-90 period and the period 204 1-70 was establish ed. These differences were th en
applied to the baseline climate d ata to provide future climatic scenarios for Ireland for these period s.
Mean temperature increases of 2-3°C we re projected for mid century for both summer and winter.
Precipitation changes showed w inter increases of the order of 10% in western Ireland and similar summer
decreases especially in eastern Ireland. Observation al data trends appear to match these projections.
Item Type: | Book Section |
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Keywords: | climate; ireland; future; high resolution; statistical downscaling techniques; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 9977 |
Depositing User: | Prof. John Sweeney |
Date Deposited: | 20 Sep 2018 09:12 |
Publisher: | The Environmental Institute |
Refereed: | Yes |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/9977 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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