Seidel, Dian J., Gillett, Nathan P., Lanzante, John, Shine, Keith P. and Thorne, Peter (2011) Stratospheric temperature trends: our evolving understanding. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2 (4). pp. 592-616. ISSN 1757-7780
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Abstract
We review the scientific literature since the 1960s to examine the evolution of
modeling tools and observations that have advanced understanding of global
stratospheric temperature changes. Observations show overall cooling of the
stratosphere during the period for which they are available (since the late 1950s and
late 1970s from radiosondes and satellites, respectively), interrupted by episodes
of warming associated with volcanic eruptions, and superimposed on variations
associated with the solar cycle. There has been little global mean temperature
change since about 1995. The temporal and vertical structure of these variations
are reasonably well explained bymodels that include changes in greenhouse gases,
ozone, volcanic aerosols, and solar output, although there are significant uncertainties
in the temperature observations and regarding the nature and influence of past
changes in stratospheric water vapor. As a companion to a recent WIREs review of
tropospheric temperature trends, this article identifies areas of commonality and
contrast between the tropospheric and stratospheric trend literature. For example,
the increased attention over time to radiosonde and satellite data quality has
contributed to better characterization of uncertainty in observed trends both in the
troposphere and in the lower stratosphere, and has highlighted the relative deficiency
of attention to observations in the middle and upper stratosphere. In contrast
to the relatively unchanging expectations of surface and tropospheric warming primarily
induced by greenhouse gas increases, stratospheric temperature change
expectations have arisen from experiments with a wider variety of model types,
showingmore complex trend patterns associated with a greater diversity of forcing
agents.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Stratospheric; temperature; trends; evolving; understanding; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 8978 |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/wcc.125 |
Depositing User: | Peter Thorne |
Date Deposited: | 09 Nov 2017 15:03 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/8978 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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