Thorne, Peter, Lanzante, John, Peterson, Thomas C., Seidel, Dian J. and Shine, Keith P. (2011) Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2 (1). pp. 66-88. ISSN 1757-7780
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Abstract
Changes in atmospheric temperature have a particular importance in climate
research because climate models consistently predict a distinctive vertical profile
of trends. With increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the surface and
troposphere are consistently projected to warm, with an enhancement of that
warming in the tropical upper troposphere. Hence, attempts to detect this distinct
‘fingerprint’ have been a focus for observational studies. The topic acquired
heightened importance following the 1990 publication of an analysis of satellite
data which challenged the reality of the projected tropospheric warming. This
review documents the evolution over the last four decades of understanding
of tropospheric temperature trends and their likely causes. Particular focus
is given to the difficulty of producing homogenized datasets, with which to
derive trends, from both radiosonde and satellite observing systems, because of
the many systematic changes over time. The value of multiple independent
analyses is demonstrated. Paralleling developments in observational datasets,
increased computer power and improved understanding of climate forcing
mechanisms have led to refined estimates of temperature trends from a wide
range of climate models and a better understanding of internal variability. It is
concluded that there is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement
between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when
uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Tropospheric; temperature; trends; history; controversy; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 8975 |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/wcc.80 |
Depositing User: | Peter Thorne |
Date Deposited: | 09 Nov 2017 12:41 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/8975 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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