Matthews, Tom K.R., Wilby, Robert L. and Murphy, Conor (2017) Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114 (15). pp. 3861-3866. ISSN 1091-6490
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Abstract
In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit
global warming to below 2 °C above
preindustrial (PI) to prevent
dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom,
is danger avoided if this
ambitious target is realized? We address these
questions by scrutinizing heat stre
ss, because the frequency of ex-
tremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach
tothe2°Climit.Weuseanalogsand
the extreme South Asian heat of
2015 as a focusing event to help inter
pret the increasing frequency of
deadly heat under specified amount
s of global warming. Using a large
ensemble of climate models, our res
ults confirm that global mean air
temperature is nonlin
early related to heat stress, meaning that the
same future warming as realized to da
te could trigger larger increases
in societal impacts than historicall
y experienced. This nonlinearity is
higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humid-
ity. We show that, even in a clima
te held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi
(Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) coul
d expect condition
s equivalent to
their deadly 2015 heatwaves every
year. With only 1.5 °C of global
warming, twice as many megacitie
s (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and
Shanghai, China) could become h
eat stressed, exposing more than
350 million more people to dead
ly heat by 2050 under a midrange
population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the
Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation
imperative for vulnerable urban populations.
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Keywords: | climate change; heat stress; megacities; extreme heat; CMIP5; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 8881 |
Identification Number: | 10.1073/pnas.1617526114 |
Depositing User: | Conor Murphy |
Date Deposited: | 10 Oct 2017 15:59 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
Publisher: | National Academy of Sciences |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/8881 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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