Liu, Wei, Huang, Boyin, Thorne, Peter, Banzon, Viva F., Zhang, Huai-Min, Freeman, Eric, Lawrimore, Jay, Peterson, Thomas C., Smith, Thomas M. and Woodruff, Scott D. (2015) Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4): Part II. Parametric and Structural Uncertainty Estimations. Journal of Climate, 28 (3). pp. 931-951. ISSN 0894-8755
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Abstract
Described herein is the parametric and structural uncertainty quantification for the monthly Extended
Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) version 4 (v4). A Monte Carlo ensemble approach was
adopted to characterize parametric uncertainty, because initial experiments indicate the existence of significant
nonlinear interactions. Globally, the resulting ensemble exhibits a wider uncertainty range before 1900, as well
as an uncertainty maximum around World War II. Changes at smaller spatial scales in many regions, or for
important features such as Niño-3.4 variability, are found to be dominated by particular parameter choices.
Substantial differences in parametric uncertainty estimates are found between ERSST.v4 and the
independently derived Hadley Centre SST version 3 (HadSST3) product. The largest uncertainties are over
the mid and high latitudes in ERSST.v4 but in the tropics in HadSST3. Overall, in comparison with HadSST3,
ERSST.v4 has larger parametric uncertainties at smaller spatial and shorter time scales and smaller parametric
uncertainties at longer time scales, which likely reflects the different sources of uncertainty quantified
in the respective parametric analyses. ERSST.v4 exhibits a stronger globally averaged warming trend than
HadSST3 during the period of 1910–2012, but with a smaller parametric uncertainty. These global-mean trend
estimates and their uncertainties marginally overlap.
Several additional SST datasets are used to infer the structural uncertainty inherent in SST estimates. For the
global mean, the structural uncertainty, estimated as the spread between available SST products, is more often
than not larger than the parametric uncertainty in ERSST.v4. Neither parametric nor structural uncertainties
call into question that on the global-mean level and centennial time scale, SSTs have warmed notably.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Databases; Surface observations; Surface temperature; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 6471 |
Identification Number: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00007.1 |
Depositing User: | Peter Thorne |
Date Deposited: | 16 Oct 2015 16:03 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Climate |
Publisher: | American Meteorological Society |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/6471 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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