Kavanagh, Adrian, Sinnott, Richard, Fotheringham, Stewart and Charlton, Martin (2006) A Geographically Weighted Regression Analysis of General Election Turnout in the Republic of Ireland. In: Political Studies Association of Ireland Conference, 20 October 2006, University College Cork.
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Abstract
Turnout in the 2002 general election confirm
e
d a downwar
d trend in Irish voter pa
rticipation levels, that
first becam
e evident in the
early 1980s and was to culm
inate in th
e lowest turnout fo
r an Irish general
election since the foundation of the st
ate (Figure 1). Given this context,
voter turnout is a topic that
requires further analysis within the
Irish con
t
ex
t,
and two ap
proaches
to address
i
ng this top
i
c ex
ists, with
each approach having its own distin
ctive adv
a
ntages and dis
a
dvantages. The surveying approach
draws on
individual-level data, and has the ad
vantage of being able to draw on a
wide range of variables, including
social-psychological variables, an
d m
a
ke direct inferences about
the behaviour, and sources of the
behaviour, of individuals. However,
questionnaire surveys generally te
nd to overestim
ate turnout levels,
with poten
tial bias in su
rvey re
spon
se rates resu
lting
in the under-rep
res
e
ntation of non-voters in survey
sam
p
les. The second type of data – aggregate data –
is subject to problem
s
arising from
the lim
ited range
of variables that can be accessed in
seeking explanations of low turnout (u
sually lim
ited to data that can be
drawn from census analyses) and the cross-lev
e
l infere
nce problem
that arises in any attem
p
t to m
a
ke
inferences about individual-leve
l behaviour from
aggregate-leve
l data (Achen and Shively, 1995).
However, the big advantage of aggregate data lies
in th
e accuracy of the estim
a
tion of the dependent
variable (turnout) and in the
potential it offers for spatial and censu
s-based analysis of variations in the
turnout variable. Lower levels of aggregation allow fo
r a larger num
ber of cases to be analysed and for
more detailed pictures of spatial varia
tions in turnout leve
ls to be gleaned.
Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
---|---|
Keywords: | Geographically Weighted Regression; Analysis; General Election Turnout; Republic of Ireland; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > National Centre for Geocomputation, NCG |
Item ID: | 5875 |
Depositing User: | Martin Charlton |
Date Deposited: | 19 Feb 2015 14:14 |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/5875 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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