Official URL: http://www.geocomputation.org/2007/

Global average temperatures have risen by an average of 0.07°C per decade over the last 100 years, with a warming trend of 0.13°C per decade over the last 50 years. Temperatures are predicted to rise by 2°C - 4.4°C by 2100 leading to global average sealevel rise (SLR) of 2 – 6mm per year (20 – 60cms in total) up to 2100 (IPCC 2007) with impacts for protected coastal habitats in Ireland. Estuaries are predominantly sedimentary environments, and are characterised by shallow coastal slope gradients, making them sensitive to even modest changes in sea-level. The Shannon estuary is the largest river estuary in Ireland and is designated as a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) under the EU Habitats Directive (EU 1992) providing protection for listed habitats within it, including estuarine salt marsh. Trends in Shannon estuary tidal data from 1877 – 2004 suggest an average upward SLR trend of 4 - 5mm/yr over this period. A simple linear extension of this historical trend would imply that local SLR will be in the region of 40 - 45cm by 2100. However, this may underestimate actual SLR for the estuary by 2100, since it takes no account of predicted climate-driven global SLR acceleration (IPCC 2007) up to 2100.