Murphy, Conor, Harrigan, Shaun, Hall, Julia and Wilby, Robert L. (2013) HydroDetect: The Identification and Assessment of Climate Change Indicators for an Irish Reference Network of River Flow Stations - an Overview. In: National Hydrology Conference, 12th November 2013, Tullamore.
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Abstract
This paper provides an overview of key findings from the EPA funded HydroDetect project
which establishes an Irish Reference Network (IRN) of river flow gauges for monitoring and
detecting climate driven trends. The flow archive from 35 hydrometric stations has an average
record length of 40 years and draws from the strengths of the existing national hydrometric
network. Using criteria based on the quality of flow records and minimisation of artificial
influences and land-use change, complimented by expert judgement, the IRN is a valuable
resource facilitating more strategic monitoring of climate driven variability and change in
hydrological indicators and enabling more confident attribution of detected trends. Here an
analysis of trends in mean and high flows for stations in the IRN is presented, with the spatial
distribution of trends across the network examined for the period 1976-2009. The following
key findings emerge. While there is considerable evidence of change in the IRN, it is difficult
at this point in time to attribute these to anthropogenic greenhouse gas induced climate
change. Indeed some of the trends identified – decreases in shorter records in winter mean
flows and increases in summer flows – are not consistent with expected changes as simulated
by Global Climate Models. This should not be surprising given the large variability of river
flows relative to climate change signals at this point.
Trends in Irish river flows are strongly correlated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation
Index (NAOI). The sensitivity and response of the NAO to greenhouse gas forcing will have
obvious implications for Irish hydrology; however the question remains open as to the impact
that greenhouse gas forcing has had on recent behaviour of the NAO and how it is likely to
respond to future forcing. While it remains challenging to identify anthropogenic climate
change signals at the catchment scale due to large natural variability and therefore a low
signal to noise ratio, there is high potential for identifying sentinel stations and indicators
within the IRN for early detection of climate change signals. These findings heighten the
importance of the IRN for monitoring and detecting climate change signals at the catchment
scale, for tracking the emergence of signals relative to natural variability and for providing
information, free from confounding factors, for validating output from climate change impact
assessments and developing adaptation policies.
Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
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Keywords: | climate change; Ireland; Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units; ICARUS; HydroDetect; hydrology; Irish Reference Network; River Flow Stations; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 4895 |
Depositing User: | Conor Murphy |
Date Deposited: | 16 Apr 2014 09:23 |
Refereed: | Yes |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/4895 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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