Slater, Louise J., Arnal, Louise, Boucher, Marie-Amélie, Chang, Annie Y.-Y., Moulds, Simon, Murphy, Conor, Nearing, Grey, Shalev, Guy, Shen, Chaopeng, Speight, Linda, Villarini, Gabriele, Wilby, Robert L., Wood, Andrew and Zappa, Massimiliano (2023) Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27 (9). pp. 1865-1889. ISSN 1607-7938
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Abstract
Hybrid hydroclimatic forecasting systems employ
data-driven (statistical or machine learning) methods to harness and integrate a broad variety of predictions from dynamical, physics-based models – such as numerical weather
prediction, climate, land, hydrology, and Earth system models – into a final prediction product. They are recognized as
a promising way of enhancing the prediction skill of meteorological and hydroclimatic variables and events, including
rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical
cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. Hybrid forecasting methods are now receiving growing attention due to advances
in weather and climate prediction systems at subseasonal to
decadal scales, a better appreciation of the strengths of AI,
and expanding access to computational resources and methods. Such systems are attractive because they may avoid the
need to run a computationally expensive offline land model,
can minimize the effect of biases that exist within dynamical outputs, benefit from the strengths of machine learning, and can learn from large datasets, while combining different sources of predictability with varying time horizons.
Here we review recent developments in hybrid hydroclimatic
forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities for further research. These include obtaining physically explainable results, assimilating human influences from novel data
sources, integrating new ensemble techniques to improve
predictive skill, creating seamless prediction schemes that
merge short to long lead times, incorporating initial land surface and ocean/ice conditions, acknowledging spatial variability in landscape and atmospheric forcing, and increasing
the operational uptake of hybrid prediction schemes.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Hybrid forecasting; blending climate predictions; AI models; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 18900 |
Identification Number: | 10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023 |
Depositing User: | Conor Murphy |
Date Deposited: | 18 Sep 2024 09:12 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
Publisher: | Copernicus Publications |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/18900 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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