Official URL: https://www.epa.ie/publications/research/climate-c...

HydroPredict aims to advance understanding of how climate change will affect river flows and drought events over the coming decades. Using the latest climate models and emissions storylines, the research assessed the impacts of climate change on flow conditions and droughts across 37 river catchments. Higher greenhouse gas emissions are associated with large reductions in average summer and annual low flows. For winter, increases in average flows are projected. If ambitious greenhouse gas reductions are achieved, more moderate reductions in summer and low flows are projected by the middle and end of the century. Changes in meteorological droughts in Ireland are driven by a transition to wetter winters and drier summers, together with increased evapotranspiration losses during summer and late spring months, leading to more frequent spring and summer droughts. The magnitude of future drought changes depends on future greenhouse gas emissions, with the most substantial changes found for higher emissions. Results arising from this project highlight the importance of temperature increases and larger evapotranspiration losses to future changes in droughts. The eastern and midland regions are expected to experience the greatest increases in drought magnitude, frequency and duration.