Morakinyo, Tobi Eniolu, Ishola, Kazeem Abiodun, Eresanya, Emmanuel OlaOluwa, Daramola, Mojolaoluwa Toluwalase and Balogun, Ifeoluwa Adebowale (2024) Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data. Weather and Climate Extremes, 45 (100704). pp. 1-16. ISSN 22120947
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Abstract
Nigeria’s growing population faces an increasing heat burden with potential health risks. The Universal Thermal
Comfort Index (UTCI) links outdoor conditions and human well-being but lacks comprehensive insitu data in
developing regions like Nigeria. ERA5-HEAT reanalysis offers a solution with gridded UTCI and MRT data, but
validation is crucial. Thus, this study evaluates the ERA5-HEAT UTCI against data from nine Nigerian weather
stations and analysed the spatio-temporal patterns of heat stress trends. Results showed that ERA5-HEAT
demonstrated reasonable statistical performance and captured the temporal characteristics and patterns of
UTCI across Nigeria’s climatic zones. Seasonal variations show heat stress levels from "slightly cold" to "moderate" at 0600 LST and "moderate" to "very strong" at 1500 LST. Geographical consistency exists within each
season over the decades, with a critical "very strong" heat stress period during March-May. Additionally, there
has been an increasing spatial expansion of areas experiencing higher heat stress levels across the country.
Latitudinally, stable patterns exist across decades at 0600 LST for each season. Seasons show distinct UTCI
values, and at 1500 LST, more variability and category transitions occur along latitudes. Furthermore, the results
indicate significant positive trends and occasional non-significant negative trends over the 40-year period.
Notably, during 0600 LST, the Guinea and Sahel regions exhibit relatively higher positive trends than the Sudan
region in all seasons, whereas at 1500 LST, high positive trends are prominent in DJF and MAM seasons, indicating increased heat stress during peak seasons. These positive deviations in UTCI are associated with adverse
effects on human health, including increased mortality rates
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | heat stress; Thermal comfort; ERA5-HEAT; Nigeria; Africa; UTCI; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > National Centre for Geocomputation, NCG Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Maynooth University Social Sciences Institute, MUSSI |
Item ID: | 18685 |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100704 |
Depositing User: | IR Editor |
Date Deposited: | 26 Jun 2024 18:45 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/18685 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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