Credit, Kevin (2022) Spatial Models or Random Forest? Evaluating the Use of Spatially Explicit Machine Learning Methods to Predict Employment Density around New Transit Stations in Los Angeles. Geographical Analysis, 54 (1). pp. 58-83. ISSN 0016-7363
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Abstract
The increasing use of “new” machine learning techniques, such as random forest, provides
an impetus to researchers to better understand the role of space in these models. Thus, this
article develops an approach for constructing spatially explicit random forest models by
including spatially lagged variables to mirror various spatial econometric specifications
in order to test their comparative performance against traditional spatial and nonspatial
regression models for predicting block-level employment density around new transit
stations in Los Angeles. This article employs a “post hoc” testing approach to isolate the
impact of a particular variable (transit proximity)—and supplemental diagnostics (such
as partial dependence plots and permutation importances)—to help inform explanatory
relationships. The results indicate that random forest models slightly outperform spatial
econometric models, and the inclusion of spatial lag parameters modestly improves random
forest model accuracy—the best-fit spatial random forest model demonstrates 84.61%
accuracy in predicting post-construction employment density around newly built transit
stations, compared to 81.88% for the best-fit spatial econometric model and 84.37% for
the nonspatial random forest model. However, given these somewhat small differences, it is
not possible to conclude that the random forest approach is clearly superior to traditional
spatial econometric models from these results alone.
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Keywords: | Geography; Social Sciences; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > National Centre for Geocomputation, NCG Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Maynooth University Social Sciences Institute, MUSSI |
Item ID: | 18552 |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/gean.12273 |
Depositing User: | Kevin Credit |
Date Deposited: | 17 May 2024 15:15 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Geographical Analysis |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/18552 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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