Thorne, Peter (2022) Discussion on “A combined estimate of global temperature”. Environmetrics, 33 (3). pp. 1-5. ISSN 1180-4009
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Abstract
While the real-world has warmed in one unique way, the available data, which
is spatio-temporally incomplete and contains biases of unknown nature and
timing, means this quantity can only ever be estimated. Craigmile and Guttorp
(2022) propose an approach that optimally combines the range of existing products to gain a refined estimate. Implicit in this or, indeed, any similar approach,
are assumptions about the available estimates representing both an unbiased
and representative draw from the population of potential plausible estimates
that could have been created. There are well-founded reasons to doubt that this
is the case. An alternative approach, used in the IPCC report, is to employ much
simpler approaches which, in particular, hedge against underestimation of the
true uncertainty in the evolution of global surface temperatures, and thus serve
to future-proof current estimates against subsequent dataset innovations arising
from future improvements in our understanding.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | homogeneity; interpolation; temperatures; uncertainty; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 17638 |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/env.2722 |
Depositing User: | Peter Thorne |
Date Deposited: | 04 Oct 2023 09:25 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Environmetrics |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/17638 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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