Dobrynin, Mikhail, Düsterhus, Andre, Fröhlich, Kristina, Athanasiadis, Panos, Ruggieri, Paolo, Müller, Wolfgang A. and Baehr, Johanna (2022) Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (20). pp. 1-11. ISSN 0094-8276
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Abstract
Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies
in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO.
However, prediction of the NAO-dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the
low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi-model ensemble of
operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of
predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically
estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi-model approach, the correlation prediction skill
for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter
NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter
over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Hidden Potential; Predicting; Wintertime; Temperature; Anomalies; Northern Hemisphere; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 17484 |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2021GL095063 |
Depositing User: | André Düsterhus |
Date Deposited: | 04 Sep 2023 14:49 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Geophysical Research Letters |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/17484 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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