Parry, Simon, Lavers, David, Wilby, Rob, Prudhomme, Christel, Wood, Paul, Murphy, Conor and O'Connor, Paul (2023) Abrupt drought termination in the British-Irish Isles driven by high atmospheric vapour transport. Environmental Research Letters. pp. 1-13. ISSN 1748-9326
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Abstract
During protracted dry spells, there is considerable interest from water managers, media and
the public in when and how drought termination (DT) will occur. Robust answers to these
questions require better understanding of the hydroclimatic drivers of DT than currently
available. Integrated vapour transport (IVT) has been found to drive DT in western North
America, but evidence elsewhere is lacking. To evaluate this association for the British-Irish
Isles, Event Coincidence Analysis is applied to 354 catchments in the UK and Ireland over
the period 1900-2010 using ERA-20C reanalysis IVT data and 7,589 DT events extracted
from reconstructed river flow series. Linkages are identified for 53% of all DT events across
all catchments. Associations are particularly strong for catchments in western and southern
regions and in autumn and winter. In Western Scotland, 80% of autumn DTs are preceded by
high IVT, whilst in southern England more than two thirds of winter DTs follow high IVT
episodes. High IVT and DT are most strongly associated in less permeable, wetter upland
catchments of western Britain, reflecting their maritime setting and orographic enhancement
of prevailing south-westerly high IVT episodes. Although high IVT remains an important
drought-terminating mechanism further east, it less frequently results in DT. Furthermore, the
highest rates of DT occur with increasing IVT intensity, and the vast majority of the most
abrupt DTs only occur following top decile IVT and under strongly positive North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) conditions. Since IVT and NAO forecasts may be more skillful than those
for rainfall which underpin current forecasting systems, incorporating these findings into such
systems has potential to underpin enhanced forecasting of DTs. This could help to mitigate
impacts of abrupt recoveries from drought including water quality issues and managing
compound drought-flood hazards concurrently.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | drought recovery; integrated vapour transport; atmospheric rivers; event coincidence analysis; UK; Ireland; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 17451 |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1748-9326/acf145 |
Depositing User: | Conor Murphy |
Date Deposited: | 22 Aug 2023 11:27 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Environmental Research Letters |
Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/17451 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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