Hannaford, Jamie, Mackay, Jonathan D., Ascott, Matthew, Bell, Victoria A., Chitson, Thomas, Cole, Steven, Counsell, Christian, Durant, Mason, Jackson, Christopher R., Kay, Alison L., Lane, Rosanna A., Mansour, Majdi, Moore, Robert, Parry, Simon, Rudd, Alison C., Simpson, Michael, Facer-Childs, Katie, Turner, Stephen, Wallbank, John R., Wells, Steven and Wilcox, Amy (2023) The enhanced future Flows and Groundwater dataset: development and evaluation of nationally consistent hydrological projections based on UKCP18. Earth System Science Data, 15 (6). pp. 2391-2415. ISSN 1866-3516
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Abstract
This paper details the development and evaluation of the enhanced future FLows and Groundwater
(eFLaG) dataset of nationally consistent hydrological projections for the UK, based on the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). The projections are derived from a range of hydrological models. For river flows, multiple
models (Grid-to-Grid, PDM (Probability Distributed Model) and GR (Génie Rural; both four- and six-parameter
versions, GR4J and GR6J)) are used to provide an indication of hydrological model uncertainty. For groundwater, two models are used, a groundwater level model (AquiMod) and a groundwater recharge model (ZOODRM:
zooming object-oriented distributed-recharge model). A 12-member ensemble of transient projections of present
and future (up to 2080) daily river flows, groundwater levels and groundwater recharge was produced using
bias-corrected data from the UKCP18 regional (12 km) climate ensemble. Projections are provided for 200 river
catchments, 54 groundwater level boreholes and 558 groundwater bodies, all sampling across the diverse hydrological and geological conditions of the UK. An evaluation was carried out to appraise the quality of hydrological
model simulations against observations and also to appraise the reliability of hydrological models driven by the
regional climate model (RCM) ensemble in terms of their capacity to reproduce hydrological regimes in the current period. The dataset was originally conceived as a prototype climate service for drought planning for the UK
water sector and so has been developed with drought, low river flow and low groundwater level applications as
the primary objectives. The evaluation metrics show that river flows and groundwater levels are, for the majority
of catchments and boreholes, well simulated across the flow and level regime, meaning that the eFLaG dataset
could be applied to a wider range of water resources research and management contexts, pending a full evaluation
for the designated purpose. Only a single climate model and one emissions scenario are used, so any applications
should ideally contextualise the outcomes with other climate model–scenario combinations. The dataset can be
accessed in Hannaford et al. (2022): https://doi.org/10.5285/1bb90673-ad37-4679-90b9-0126109639a9.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | enhanced future Flows; Groundwater; dataset; development; evaluation; hydrological projections; UKCP18; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 17448 |
Identification Number: | 10.5194/essd-15-2391-2023 |
Depositing User: | Conor Murphy |
Date Deposited: | 17 Aug 2023 14:51 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Earth System Science Data |
Publisher: | Copernicus Publications |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/17448 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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