Cahill, Niamh, Croke, Jacky, Campbell, Micheline, Hughes, Kate, Vitkovsky, John, Kilgallen, Jack Eaton and Parnell, Andrew (2023) A Bayesian time series model for reconstructing hydroclimate from multiple proxies. Environmetrics, 34 (4). ISSN 1180-4009
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Abstract
We propose a Bayesian model which produces probabilistic reconstructions of
hydroclimatic variability in Queensland Australia. The model provides a standardized approach to hydroclimate reconstruction using multiple palaeoclimate
proxy records derived from natural archives such as speleothems, ice cores and
tree rings. The method combines time-series modeling with inverse prediction
to quantify the relationships between a given hydroclimate index and relevant
proxies over an instrumental period and subsequently reconstruct the hydroclimate back through time. We present case studies for Brisbane and Fitzroy
catchments focusing on two hydroclimate indices, the Rainfall Index (RFI) and
the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The probabilistic nature of the reconstructions allows us to estimate the probability that a
hydroclimate index in any reconstruction year was lower (higher) than the minimum (maximum) value observed over the instrumental period. In Brisbane, the
RFI is unlikely (probabilities < 5%) to have exhibited extremes beyond the minimum/maximum values observed between 1889 and 2019. However, in Fitzroy
there are several years during the reconstruction period where the RFI is likely
(>50% probability) to have exhibited behavior beyond the minimum/maximum
of what has been observed, during the instrumental period. For SPEI, the probability of observing such extremes prior to the beginning of the instrumental
period in 1889 doesn’t exceed 30% in any reconstruction year in Brisbane, but
exceeds 50% in multiple years in Fitzroy.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Bayesian modeling; hydroclimate; multiple proxy; reconstruction; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 17427 |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/env.2786 |
Depositing User: | Niamh Cahill |
Date Deposited: | 16 Aug 2023 15:06 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Environmetrics |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/17427 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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