Beobide‐Arsuaga, Goratz, Düsterhus, Andre, Müller, Wolfgang A., Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Baehr, Johanna (2023) Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (2). ISSN 0094-8276
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Abstract
Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs)
have been shown to precede recent European summer heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of
observed events associated with several physical mechanisms has prevented a robust identification of SSTAs as
precursors. Here, we extend beyond previous studies by combining 100 historical simulations (1850–2005) of
the MPI Grand-Ensemble with an explainable neural-network method. We find that the spring tripolar North
Atlantic pattern with positive SSTAs in the Subtropical Gyre is a precursor of EuSHWs. In addition, positive
SSTAs west of the Iberian Peninsula, and in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea relate to
distinct early summer soil moisture anomaly patterns and are precursors of western and southeastern EuSHWs,
respectively. While the phase of the tripolar North Atlantic pattern indicates whether a EuSHW might emerge,
regional SSTAs indicate the spatial characteristics of EuSHWs.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Spring; Regional; Sea Surface Temperatures; Precursor; European Summer Heatwaves; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 17425 |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2022GL100727 |
Depositing User: | André Düsterhus |
Date Deposited: | 16 Aug 2023 15:00 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Geophysical Research Letters |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/17425 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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