Miranda, Felipe Laure, de Oliveira, Leondardo Willer, Dias, Bruno Henriques, de Resende, Leonidas Chaves, Nepomuceno, Erivelton and de Oliveira, Edimar José (2020) Composite Power System Reliability Evaluation Considering Stochastic Parameters Uncertainties. IEEE Latin America Transactions, 18 (11). pp. 2003-2010. ISSN 1548-0992
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Abstract
In electrical power systems, the impact of
interruptions due to failures can be reduced through expansion
planning studies. While high investments result in very expensive
and more reliable decisions, reduced investments can lead to
unreliable systems. Therefore, it is evident that economic and
reliability constraints are conflicting, which makes decision-making difficult in planning and operation stage. The reliability
theory, based on probabilities and stochastic processes, allows
modeling the random behavior of equipment to estimate
performance indices such as Loss of Load Cost. However,
parameters as equipment failure rate and repair time are subject
to random variations due to limited or nonexistent operating
histories, aging and statistical errors. This paper proposes a
technique for considering uncertainties on stochastic equipment
data in power systems expansion planning. Based on the Monte
Carlo Simulation, the proposed technique uses Interval
Arithmetic as a method for calculating uncertainty through the
theory of imprecise probabilities (P-Box). The application in a
test system and a real transmission system allows observing the
behavior of the reliability cost as well as the final cost of
alternatives for expansion of these systems with the consideration
of uncertainties along the expansion horizon.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Power System Reliability; Uncertainties; Interval Arithmetic; Probability Box; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Electronic Engineering Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute |
Item ID: | 16713 |
Depositing User: | Erivelton Nepomuceno |
Date Deposited: | 16 Nov 2022 12:43 |
Journal or Publication Title: | IEEE Latin America Transactions |
Publisher: | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/16713 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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