Aizpurua, J.I., Stewart, B.G., McArthur, S.D.J., Penalba, M., Barrenetxea, M., Muxika, E. and Ringwood, John V. (2022) Probabilistic forecasting informed failure prognostics framework for improved RUL prediction under uncertainty: A transformer case study. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 226. pp. 1-13. ISSN 0951-8320
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Abstract
The energy transition towards resilient and sustainable power plants requires moving from periodic health
assessment to condition-based lifetime planning, which in turn, creates new challenges and opportunities
for health estimation and prediction. Probabilistic forecasting models are being widely employed to predict
the likely evolution of power grid parameters, such as weather prediction models and probabilistic load
forecasting models, that precisely impact on the health state of power and energy components. These
models synthesize forecasting knowledge and associated uncertainty information, and their integration within
asset management practice would improve lifetime estimation under uncertainty through uncertainty-aware
probabilistic predictions. Accordingly, this paper presents a probabilistic prognostics method for lifetime
planning under uncertainty integrating data-driven probabilistic forecasting models with expert-knowledge
based Bayesian filtering methods. The proposed concepts are applied and validated with power transformers
operated in two different power generation systems and obtained results confirm that the proposed probabilistic
transformer lifetime estimate aids in the decision-making process with informative lifetime distributions and
associated confidence intervals.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Condition monitoring; Probabilistic forecasting; Transformer; Prognostics; Uncertainty; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Electronic Engineering Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Centre for Ocean Energy Research |
Item ID: | 16315 |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108676 |
Depositing User: | Professor John Ringwood |
Date Deposited: | 15 Jul 2022 10:21 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Reliability Engineering and System Safety |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/16315 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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