Pollard, Ciarán P., Griffin, Christine T., Moral, Rafael de Andrade, Duffy, Catriona, Chuche, Julien, Gaffney, Michael T., Fealy, Reamonn M. and Fealy, Rowan (2020) phenModel: A temperature-dependent phenology/voltinism model for a herbivorous insect incorporating facultative diapause and budburst. Ecological Modelling, 416. p. 108910. ISSN 0304-3800
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Abstract
A comprehensive phenology/voltinism model was developed for Phratora vulgatissima, an important pest of
bioenergy crops. The model, phenModel, was developed based on development times of different life cycle stages
(eggs, larvae, pupae, pre-oviposition, oviposition, sexual maturation) obtained from constant temperature laboratory experiments. As part of this study, a number of linear and non-linear models which describe the
temperature-dependent development rate (inverse of development time) for each of the different life cycle stages were fitted. Based on the criteria of model parsimony and model fit, the non-linear Lactin-2 model was chosen as
the optimum model to describe temperature-driven development in P. vulgatissima. To account for the variation
in development times between individuals, an important but often ignored aspect in phenology models, a
number of stochastic models (2- and 3- parameter Weibull and logistic models) were evaluated, based on the
assumption that normalised development times conform to a similar shaped ('same shape') distribution. Novel
aspects of the phenology model include the incorporation of a biologically relevant biofix, based on a budburst
model for Salix viminalis, and a photoperiod threshold to induce facultative diapause. The model, which is
written in R for accessibility, requires inputs of daily minimum and maximum temperature and site latitude and
produces outputs describing the timing of completion of developmental stages for specified proportions of the
population. It was evaluated against available field data and found to largely reproduce the observations providing a measure of its potential utility. A key component of the model allows for a sensitivity analysis of the
model parameters. The model is structured so that it can easily be adapted for other leaf-feeding beetles which
display a facultative reproductive diapause cued by photoperiod, and where the onset of oviposition is dependent on budburst, assuming relevant life cycle stage parameters are available.
Item Type: | Article |
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Additional Information: | Cite as: Ciarán P. Pollard, Christine T. Griffin, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Catriona Duffy, Julien Chuche, Michael T. Gaffney, Reamonn M. Fealy, Rowan Fealy, phenModel: A temperature-dependent phenology/voltinism model for a herbivorous insect incorporating facultative diapause and budburst, Ecological Modelling, Volume 416, 2020, 108910,ISSN 0304-3800, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108910 |
Keywords: | Temperature; Development rate; Development time variation; Lactin model; Weibull function; Phenology model; Phratora vulgatissima; phenModel R package; Climate change; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > National Centre for Geocomputation, NCG Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Maynooth University Social Sciences Institute, MUSSI Faculty of Science and Engineering > Biology Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute |
Item ID: | 15806 |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108910 |
Depositing User: | Rowan Fealy |
Date Deposited: | 12 Apr 2022 09:45 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Ecological Modelling |
Publisher: | Science Direct |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/15806 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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