Murphy, Conor, Wilby, Robert L., Matthews, Tom K.R., Horvath, Csaba, Crampsie, Arlene, Ludlow, Francis, Noone, Simon, Brannigan, Jordan, Hannaford, Jamie, McLeman, Robert and Jobbova, Eva (2020) The forgotten drought of 1765–1768: Reconstructing and re-evaluating historical droughts in the British and Irish Isles. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 0899-8418
Preview
joc.6521.pdf
Download (6MB) | Preview
Abstract
Historical precipitation records are fundamental for the management of
water resources, yet rainfall observations typically span 100–15 0 years at
most, with considerable uncertainties surrounding earlier records. Here, we
analyse some of the longest a vailabl e precipitation records globally, for
England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland. To assess the credibility of these
records and extend them further back in time, we statistically reconstruct
(using independent predictors) monthly precipitation series representing
these regions for the period 1748–2000. By applying the Standardized Precipi-
tation Index at 12-month accumulations (SPI-12) to the observed and our
reconstructed series we re-evaluate historical meteorological droughts. We
find strong agreement between observed and reconstructed drought chronol-
ogies in post-1870 records, but divergence in e arlier series due to biases in
early precipitation observations. Hence, the 1800s decade was less drought
prone in our reconstructions relative to observations. Overall, the drought of
1834–1836 was the most intense SPI-12 event in our reconstruction for
England and Wales. Newspaper accounts and documentary sources confirm
the extent of impacts across England in particular. We also identify a major,
“forgotten” drought in 1765–1768 that affected the British-Irish Isles. This
was the most intense event in our reconstructions for Ireland and Scotland,
and ranks first for accumulated deficits a cross all three regional series.
Moreover, the 1765–1768 event was also the most extreme multi-year drought
across all regional series when considering 36-month a ccumulations (SPI-36).
Newspaper and other sources confirm the occurrence and major socio-
economic impact of this drought, such as major rivers like the Shannon being
fordable by foot. Our results provide new insights into historical droughts
across the British Irish Isles. Given the importance of historical droughts for
stress-testing the resilience of water resources, drought plans and supply sys-
tems, the forgotten drought of 1765–1 768 offers perhaps the most extreme
benchmark scenario in more than 250-years.
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Keywords: | documentary sources; England and Wales precipitation; historical drought; Ireland; Scotland; UK; water planning; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 13961 |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/joc.6521 |
Depositing User: | Conor Murphy |
Date Deposited: | 10 Feb 2021 10:22 |
Journal or Publication Title: | International Journal of Climatology |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Funders: | Irish Research Council, Grant/Award Number: COALESCE/2019/43; Natural Environment Research Council, Grant/ Award Number: NE/L01061X/1; Science Foundation Ireland, Grant/Award Number: SFI/17/CDA/4783 |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/13961 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
Repository Staff Only (login required)
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year