Franke, Peter M., Huntley, Brian and Parnell, Andrew (2018) Frequency selection in paleoclimate time series: A model-based approach incorporating possible time uncertainty. Environmetrics, 29 (e2492). ISSN 1180-4009
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Abstract
A key aspect of paleoclimate time series analysis is the identification of frequency behavior. Commonly, this is achieved by calculating a power spectrum
and comparing this spectrum with that of a simplified model. Traditional
hypothesis testing method can then be used to find statistically significant peaks
that correspond to different frequencies. Complications occur when the data
are multivariate or suffer from time uncertainty. In particular, the presence of
joint uncertainties surrounding observations and their timing makes traditional
hypothesis testing impractical.
In this paper, we reexpress the frequency identification problem in the time
domain as a variable selection model where each variable corresponds to a different frequency. We place this problem in a Bayesian framework that allows us
to place shrinkage prior distributions on the weighting of each frequency, as well
as include informative prior information through which we can take account of
time uncertainty.
We validate our approach with simulated data and illustrate it with analysis of mid- to late Holocene water table records from two sites in Northern
Ireland—Dead Island and Slieveanorra. Both case studies also show the extent
of the challenges that researchers may face. We therefore present one case that
shows a good model fit with a clear frequency pattern and the other case where
the identification of frequency behavior is impossible. We contrast our results
with that of the extant methodology, known as REDFIT.
Item Type: | Article |
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Additional Information: | Cite as: Franke, PM, Huntley, B, Parnell, AC. Frequency selection in palaeoclimate time series: A model‐based approach incorporating possible time uncertainty. Environmetrics. 2018; 29:e2492. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2492 |
Keywords: | frequency analysis; parameter selection; REDFIT; time uncertainty; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics |
Item ID: | 13278 |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/env.2492 |
Depositing User: | Andrew Parnell |
Date Deposited: | 24 Sep 2020 15:28 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Environmetrics |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/13278 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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