Sweeney, James, Salter-Townshend, Michael, Edwards, Tamsin, Buck, Caitlin E. and Parnell, Andrew (2018) Statistical challenges in estimating past climate changes. WIREs Computational Statistics, 10 (e1437). ISSN 1939-0068
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Abstract
We review the statistical methods currently in use to estimate past changes in climate. These methods encompass the full gamut of statistical modeling approaches,
ranging from simple regression up to nonparametric spatiotemporal Bayesian
models. Often the full inferential challenge is broken down into many submodels
each of which may involve multiple stochastic components, and occasionally
mechanistic or process-based models too. We argue that many of the traditional
approaches are simplistic in their structure, handling, and presentation of uncertainty, and that newer models (which incorporate mechanistic aspects alongside
statistical models) provide an exciting research agenda for the next decade. We
hope that policy-makers and those charged with predicting future climate change
will increasingly use probabilistic paleoclimate reconstructions to calibrate their
forecasts, learn about key natural climatological parameters, and make appropriate
decisions concerning future climate change. Remarkably few statisticians have
involved themselves with paleoclimate reconstruction, and we hope that this article
inspires more to take up the challenge.
Item Type: | Article |
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Additional Information: | Cite as: Sweeney, J, SalterâTownshend, M, Edwards, T, Buck, CE, Parnell, AC. Statistical challenges in estimating past climate changes. WIREs Comput Stat. 2018; 10:e1437. https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.1437 |
Keywords: | Bayesian methods and theory; computational Bayesian methods; Paleoclimate reconstruction; statistical modelling of climate; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics |
Item ID: | 13276 |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/wics.1437 |
Depositing User: | Andrew Parnell |
Date Deposited: | 24 Sep 2020 15:10 |
Journal or Publication Title: | WIREs Computational Statistics |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/13276 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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