Kemp, Andrew C., Hill, Troy D., Vane, Christopher H., Cahill, Niamh, Orton, Philip M., Talke, Stefan A., Parnell, Andrew, Sanborn, Kelsey and Hartig, Ellen K. (2017) Relative sea-level trends in New York City during the past 1500 years. Holocene, 27 (8). pp. 1169-1186. ISSN 0959-6836
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Abstract
New York City (NYC) is threatened by 21st-century relative sea-level (RSL) rise because it will experience a trend that exceeds the global mean and has high concentrations of low-lying infrastructure and socioeconomic activity. To provide a long-term context for anticipated trends, we reconstructed RSL change during the past ~1500 years using a core of salt-marsh sediment from Pelham Bay in The Bronx. Foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ13C values were used as sea-level indicators. The history of sediment accumulation was established by radiocarbon dating and recognition of pollution and land-use trends of known age in down-core elemental, isotopic, and pollen profiles. The reconstruction was generated within a Bayesian hierarchical model to accommodate multiple proxies and to provide a unified statistical framework for quantifying uncertainty. We show that RSL in NYC rose by ~1.70 m since ~575 CE (including ~0.38 m since 1850 CE). The rate of RSL rise increased markedly at 1812–1913 CE from ~1.0 to ~2.5 mm/yr, which coincides with other reconstructions along the US Atlantic coast. We investigated the possible influence of tidal-range change in Long Island Sound on our reconstruction using a regional tidal model, and we demonstrate that this effect was likely small. However, future tidal-range change could exacerbate the impacts of RSL rise in communities bordering Long Island Sound. The current rate of RSL rise is the fastest that NYC has experienced for >1500 years, and its ongoing acceleration suggests that projections of 21st-century local RSL rise will be realized.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Bayesian transfer function; carbon isotope; foraminifera; salt marsh; sedimentation; The Bronx; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute |
Item ID: | 11354 |
Identification Number: | 10.1177/0959683616683263 |
Depositing User: | Niamh Cahill |
Date Deposited: | 17 Oct 2019 13:24 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Holocene |
Publisher: | SAGE Publications |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mu.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/11354 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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